This time, Daley faces real challenge

This time, Daley faces rSeptember 24, 2006

BY MONROE ANDERSON




Since Richard M. Daley defeated Mayor Eugene Sawyer in 1989, one African-American candidate after the next has made a feeble attempt to take back the seat. In 2003, Daley won with 63 percent of the black vote. His challenger four years ago, the Rev. Paul Jakes, got one-tenth of the number of black votes that Harold Washington commanded 20 years earlier.



But this time may be different. This time, Daley may have a serious African-American challenge. An exclusive poll, released in last Sunday's Sun-Times, predicted that he could end up in his first runoff, going head-to-head with Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.

Eight years ago, the Chicago electorate got new rules, making the mayor's race nonpartisan. If on Feb. 27 no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, there will be a runoff in April between the top two vote-getters. To any challenger hoping to knock Daley off his perch, it's the more the merrier, because each candidate in effect robs the mayor of a majority vote.

Last week's poll gives Daley 48 percent of the vote-- 2 points short of the plurality he needs. Although unannounced, Jackson came in second with 19 percent and Rep. Luis Gutierrez third with 10 percent. The two announced candidates -- Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown and former Harold Washington aide William ''Dock'' Walls -- garnered 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

For me, the poll raises as many questions as it answers. Why hasn't Walls, who has been running for 2-1/2 years without gaining any traction, gotten out of the race? Will Gutierrez get in and stay? Will an election battle including Jackson and Brown, the highest ranking African-American female politician in Illinois, leave the African-American community too divided to unite behind either candidate in a runoff against Daley? How would Jackson's state-of-the-art virtual political machine match up against Daley's proven patronage army?

Will any of it matter by the beginning of May?

Daley has carefully crafted a reputation over the past 17 years for having an all-inclusive administration, nearly taking the issue of ethnic and racial discrimination off the table. There are African and Hispanic Americans in key posts throughout city government. Through other deft political moves, Daley has co-opted black politicians, preachers and businessmen. Rightly and wrongly, the mayor makes it a practice to get things done.

That leaves the political scandals that have rocked City Hall over the past two years as the only prey for Daley's challengers. And even his sitting ducks seem to be moving targets. Corruption -- and burgeoning city taxes -- should have Chicagoans up in arms, but 60 percent of the voters believe the mayor when he says he was not aware that some of his aides were breaking Chicago's hiring laws.

As a candidate, Jackson no doubt would try to convince them otherwise, employing his considerable oratory skills against a mayor who is fluent in facial expressions and body language. In a worst-case scenario, a Jackson campaign would push Daley below the 59 percent of the vote last week's survey predicted he would get in a runoff, and the congressman well above the 23 percent the poll said he would get.

Beyond that, even if Jackson lost the election, he might win the long-term race. The bet is that Jackson's mayoral candidacy would help sweep into office his slate of professional people, candidates who would not be beholden to Daley. If he were able to pull that off, then Jackson not only would be a more powerful force in the legislative chamber in Chicago but in Washington as well.

In the meantime, the U.S. attorney's office is still investigating the problems in city hiring. That brings up a couple of more questions the poll raised for me: Will Victor Reyes, the mayor's patronage chief for five years who is now being investigated by the feds, sing? And, if so, will Daley end up perp-walking to Reyes' lyrics on the nightly news?





monroeanderson@gmail.com