Rubber-stamp aldermen might get bounced in next election

Rubber-stamp aldermen might get b
October 6, 2006
BY DICK SIMPSON

In 2006, we are at a political crossroads at local, state and national levels of government. Today the City Club is holding a conference to predict who will be the next governor and mayor, and which party will control Congress after the Nov. 7 elections. Political predictions are always chancy even if the Sun-Times/NBC poll two weeks ago seemed to provide important clues as to the election outcomes.

As to the Illinois gubernatorial race, the Sun-Times poll conducted Sept. 10-12 found Gov. Blagojevich with a wide lead over Judy Baar Topinka. However, the more recent controversy over the governor's campaign treasurer giving a $1,500 gift to the governor's child just before the governor intervened to get his wife hired by the state has cast doubt in the minds of many voters. Topinka has failed fully to capitalize on corruption in state government scandals because she is seen as too close to former Republican Gov. George Ryan. Many Illinois voters see both candidates and parties as corrupt and beholden to special interests.

Faith in state government is being undermined at the very time that taxes must be raised or state government services cut to offset the $3 billion deficit facing the state. With voters saying a pox on both your parties, they are in no mood to sacrifice to solve our state's serious fiscal problems. Blagojevich will probably win the election, but the state will lose because voters have lost confidence in state government.

As to the upcoming city elections in February, the Sun-Times poll predicts that Mayor Daley, if he decides to run and if all the other likely candidates do, could face a runoff election for the first time in his political career. Daley would receive only 48 percent of the vote today. The other candidates have yet begun to campaign in earnest and will probably receive more votes as they get better known. It is also expected that more of Daley's top government officials will be indicted before the election.

The aldermanic elections are as contentious as the mayoral race. Predictions are that up to 15 of the most rubber-stamp aldermen, who have supported Daley in the Council on virtually all the controversial votes, may be defeated. This is the best group of aldermanic challengers to run in the past 20 years. When the chances of winning become greater and when outrage at aldermanic actions increases, the quality of the challengers improves. Most strong aldermanic challengers are planning to raise $150,000 to $200,000, have strong issues, well-developed platforms and professional campaign staffs. These are not fly-by-night campaigns. Most independent aldermen will win re-election. But many Daley clones will either be defeated or in the race of their political careers.

Unions such as SEIU and mayoral campaigns such as Jesse Jackson Jr.'s are planning to support aldermanic challengers with both money and workers. Community organizations under the leadership of the Jewish Council on Urban Affairs will issue an aldermanic scorecard to hold aldermen accountable.

If as many as 15 aldermanic seats change, the entire Council will be up for grabs. We saw this in 1987, when Mayor Harold Washington originally had a majority of only 26-24 from the special 1986 elections, but suddenly gained the support of more than 40 aldermen. Aldermen want to be on the winning side, and they will shift their loyalties accordingly. We could actually have a democratic City Council in which issues are debated rather than decided by fiat from the mayor's office.

In 2006, we also will decide who controls Congress. If Democrats win 15 new seats in the House of Representatives, they can block President Bush's initiatives. Three of those seats are up for grabs in Cook and DuPage county suburbs. The Republicans have been losing their grip over the suburban areas. No one expects the Democrats to win two new seats and to re-elect Melissa Bean. But if they win two out of three of these contests, they stand an excellent chance of gaining control of the House.

City and suburban voters will decide within the next five months the direction of state government, the fate of Chicago and the division of power in Washington. We are at an important political crossroads.